Sudan’s Foreign Minister: A Diplomatic Fumble and Lavrov’s Shock

It was my first time seeing Sudan’s Foreign Minister, Ali Youssef Al-Sharif, and I felt uneasy the moment I laid eyes on him. His ill-fitted suit, a tie that looked like it had been put on in the dark, and the presence of journalist Khalid Al-Aysar beside him gave the impression of a hastily arranged gathering in a living room rather than a formal government press event.

From the outset, it was clear that this was a man who did not fully grasp the weight of his position—and he did not disappoint.

At yesterday’s press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Al-Sharif spoke with an air of triumph, as if announcing a historic diplomatic breakthrough. “We have reached a mutual understanding on the naval base,” he declared before the cameras. “We have agreed. We have agreed on everything.”

Yet, Lavrov himself made no mention of any such agreement. Instead, he focused on the need to end military operations in Sudan and initiate a comprehensive national dialogue—an unmistakable signal that Moscow prefers to keep this issue behind closed doors, away from media scrutiny, particularly given the region’s volatile geopolitical climate.

Does the Port Sudan government even realize what this means? Or is it simply chasing agreements it lacks the authority or capacity to implement?

A Government Without a Mandate

Sudan today is in a state of total disarray. Cities are being reduced to rubble, fierce battles rage between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and regional and international interventions are becoming increasingly complex. Yet, despite this chaos, the Port Sudan government—lacking recognition from both the United Nations and the African Union as a legitimate authority—has taken it upon itself to sign a strategic military agreement that directly impacts Sudan’s sovereignty.

How can a government that does not even control its own capital grant a foreign power a foothold in one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors?

Since 2017, Moscow has been pushing to establish a military presence in the Red Sea, fully aware of its strategic importance in global naval power struggles. A base in Port Sudan would give Russia a critical edge in countering the U.S. and NATO’s influence in the region while strengthening its military ties with Sudan in exchange for political and security backing. Moreover, it would serve as a transit hub for weapons and technology destined for Russian allies in the Middle East and Africa, positioning Moscow to challenge U.S. and French bases in Djibouti—a move that could significantly escalate geopolitical tensions in the region.

A Dangerous Gamble

But the real question is: Does the Port Sudan government understand the magnitude of the risks involved?

Granting Russia a military base on the Red Sea is not just a security agreement—it is a decision that could drag Sudan into direct confrontation with the United States and its Gulf allies. Washington has made it explicitly clear that it will not tolerate a permanent Russian presence in this crucial waterway.

Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, view the Red Sea as a critical part of their national security and will not accept a Russian presence that could pave the way for military alliances with Iran and the Houthis. Even Israel is closely monitoring the situation with concern, as a Russian base in Sudan could facilitate the transfer of advanced weapons to Moscow’s regional allies, potentially disrupting Israeli maritime operations.

What Does Sudan Gain?

In the midst of all these international power plays, one must ask: What exactly does Sudan stand to gain from this deal?

A country already on the brink of economic collapse, torn apart by civil war and political infighting, can ill afford to take sides in great-power conflicts. Yet, the Port Sudan government—barely managing its day-to-day affairs—is acting as if it holds the authority to shape Sudan’s destiny for decades to come. In reality, it is nothing more than a fragile political facade, desperately clinging to power at any cost, even if that cost is Sudan’s sovereignty and stability.

This Russian deal is not just a reckless gamble—it is a direct mortgage of the nation’s future to foreign powers at a time when Sudan lacks both the legitimacy and the means to make such weighty decisions.

Moscow has nothing to lose. Sudan, on the other hand, risks political, military, and economic isolation, entangling itself in geopolitical conflicts where it holds no leverage.

The Port Sudan government is not thinking beyond its immediate survival. It seeks only to extend its rule by a few more months, even if it means sacrificing Sudan’s long-term security, autonomy, and international standing.