Experts Predict Burhan Government’s Failure to Regain AU Membership

Experts on Wednesday predicted that Sudan’s military leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, will fail in his efforts to reinstate Sudan’s membership in the African Union (AU) during the organization’s upcoming summit on Friday.

According to analysts, the AU is expected to maintain Sudan’s suspension as the conditions that led to the decision remain unchanged, despite the military government’s intensified diplomatic efforts to reverse the ban.

The AU summit will also address several key issues, including the election of a new AU Commission chairperson to replace Moussa Faki. The leading contenders for the position include former Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and former Malagasy Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato.

Meanwhile, Sudan’s military-led government has been rallying allies to secure Sudan’s representation in the AU, seeking to sideline a potential civilian government expected to emerge from areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

AU Suspension Likely to Remain in Place

Political analyst Ali Al-Dali believes Sudan’s AU suspension will remain in effect due to several major obstacles, primarily the ongoing war and the parallel government expected to form in RSF-held areas.

Speaking to Erem News, Al-Dali noted that Burhan had engaged in extensive diplomatic efforts, including shuttle diplomacy with key AU member states, in hopes of securing their support at the upcoming summit.

“The Port Sudan government has exhausted all its resources to regain AU membership—from Burhan’s international visits to his recent remarks about forming a civilian government. But it is evident that significant hurdles remain ahead of the AU summit,” Al-Dali said.

He emphasized that merely announcing a civilian government in Port Sudan would not be enough to persuade the AU to lift the suspension.

Al-Dali pointed out that the formation of a parallel government in RSF-controlled areas would present a serious challenge to Burhan’s administration, further complicating its bid for international recognition.

“A parallel government will challenge Burhan’s legitimacy in regional and international organizations, derailing his plans to restore Sudan’s AU membership,” he explained.

According to Al-Dali, the most significant barrier to Sudan’s AU reinstatement is the ongoing war, amid growing international and regional demands for its cessation. He predicted that AU member states would continue using the suspension as leverage to push for negotiations between the warring factions.

He also highlighted the impact of U.S. sanctions on Sudanese military leaders, arguing that global diplomatic pressure would influence the AU’s decision. “The AU’s stance is closely tied to international positions on Sudan,” he added.

International Diplomatic Efforts

Al-Dali revealed that international and regional actors are working to organize a major diplomatic meeting alongside the AU summit to discuss Sudan’s crisis. He suggested that the outcomes of this gathering could influence the AU’s decision regarding Sudan’s membership.

“There are influential AU member states that continue to take a neutral stance on the Sudanese crisis. Many of them are likely to vote in favor of maintaining the suspension,” he said.

He argued that if Burhan is serious about restoring Sudan’s AU membership, he must address the root causes of the crisis—primarily by ending the war—rather than merely promising a civilian government. “The world is watching and waiting for concrete steps to end Sudan’s suffering,” he stressed.

Burhan’s Roadmap and AU Membership Conditions

On Sunday, Burhan’s government announced a “Roadmap for the Post-War Phase and the Resumption of the Political Process.” The plan includes launching a comprehensive national dialogue, forming a technocratic government to oversee the transition, addressing the war’s humanitarian and economic repercussions, amending the constitutional document, and appointing a civilian prime minister to lead the executive branch without military interference.

Experts believe Burhan’s roadmap is aimed at persuading the AU to lift Sudan’s suspension and recognize his administration as the country’s legitimate representative—particularly before a civilian government is established in RSF-controlled areas.

However, journalist and political analyst Abu Ubaida Barghouth dismissed the possibility of Sudan regaining AU membership, arguing that the country has yet to meet the necessary conditions.

Speaking to Erem News, Barghouth said, “The reasons that led to Sudan’s suspension still exist, and new factors have only worsened the situation. The military’s coup against the constitutional framework in October 2021 created a political vacuum, which was further deepened by the outbreak of war, leading to a complete constitutional collapse.”

According to Barghouth, Sudan’s current situation makes it ineligible for AU membership under the organization’s legal framework.

“As long as these conditions persist, Sudan’s membership will remain frozen. The country is simply not in a position to meet the AU’s criteria,” he concluded.